A thinking tool

Sales, cost and stock
are one machine.

Most shop owners are handed five separate pieces of advice. They are not five things — they are one equation with a factory bolted to the end of it. Move the sliders and watch profit, cash and reorder timing move together.

Reach×conversion×(price − cost)×units per order×(1 + repeat)ad spend=profit / month

What the factory hands you

Set to 0 if you make it yourself and never wait on a factory

Including box, label and inbound freight

What you charge

This is what decides how fast one production run clears

Three panels, starting from the constraint you do not get to choose. Change anything — every chart below re-reads.

Month 12 — once the machine is up to speed

Numbers settle after a year of building a repeat base · Type a target and the model works backwards to the driver

Profit / mo
Net revenue / mo
CAC
LTV : CAC
Units / mo
Lot burn

Where one order's money goes

Fee Cost of goods Ad spend Profit

The factory clock — lot after lot, seamlessly

The funnel at month 12

Where you lose the most people

12 months of revenue, split by who paid

New customers Returning

View as a table

Cash in hand over 12 months

You pay for the first lot before you sell anything, then earn it back

If you could move only one lever

Extra profit per month, measured from your current numbers

The five things this makes visible

01 A production roadmap MOQ and lead time are a hard wall. The factory clock tells you whether one lot can hand off to the next without a gap.
02 Marketing has only two jobs Win new customers, and bring old ones back. Both live in the Customers panel — reach and conversion buy the first order, repeat rate and cycle earn the rest. There is no third job.
03 The numbers to watch Conversion rate, repeat rate and repurchase cycle multiply into everything else — and they set your CAC directly.
04 Pull them into your own channel Every point moved off a marketplace is margin nobody takes a cut of, plus a contact you can sell to again.
05 Raise the order value Price × units per order = AOV. The only lever that grows without finding a single extra person.
+ Cost and CAC Revenue is not profit. Goods, fees and ads all come out first. Below an LTV:CAC of 3, selling harder just hurts more.

A deliberately simple model, built to show direction and priority rather than to forecast sales. The customer base is a cohort: each cycle a share returns at the repeat rate and the rest is treated as churned. All figures are in Thai baht.

This is the first hour of a project.

We build the systems that make these numbers real — POS, stock, storefront, the reporting that tells you which lever actually moved. Scoped honestly, operated for years.